Ten years after the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that polarised the country and unleashed turmoil, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two prominent writers from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly contentious and transformative public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can build support rapidly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Book Publication Intends to Provoke Discussion
The team have studied the governmental, financial and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a book, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the matter with a roadshow of public talks that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everybody, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose implications have not been clarified because then you end up with an extraordinarily polarised community where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the victorious side don't know precisely what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue that moment is approaching, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, leaving it unclear whether or when there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has obscured the absence of informed dialogue, stated McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which may surpass that to achieve it is mostly absent. Much has occurred in scholarly circles but scarcely any politicians or advocates are willing to participate with even the basics. For instance, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the book, none of the commentators endorses unity or the status quo. Both authors two pieces that aim for impartiality in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling economic and societal statistics, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Discussions cover national emblems, taxes, health services, pensions, public liabilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to inform and stimulate dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there hasn't quite been a discussion," said the writer. "Dialogue indicates an acceptance of the concept that there may exist valid points on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate say they favour unification but oppose paying higher taxes or adopting a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government should establish what the offer from Irish nationalism is aside from just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it might occur abruptly. "There might be just a reckless or a ill-advised or a incompetent secretary of state who declares: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified arguments, he commented. "One side will win here and somebody will ultimately lose but both parties has has valuable insights to gain from the opposing positions."
Request for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster needed to join the discussion, stated the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish matter."
